Hot State Race Roundup 2008

“It used to be five or six battleground districts in play each election cycle. I’m not sure you can say it’s only five or six now. There could be 20 or 25. A lot of places are going to be in play,” says Steve Schale, political director for House Victory, the arm of the Florida Democratic Party dedicated to electing Democrats to the Florida House of Representatives.

What accounts for the sudden surge in competition? Schale says the Democrats have had better luck recently in recruiting strong candidates to take on Republican incumbents, but he also suspects that voters themselves are playing a key role in the transition. “People are just moving beyond the basic rank of partisan politics that has driven politics in Florida. Voters are increasingly voting more person than party.”

With that in mind, we’ve highlighted 12 state House and Senate races most likely to be hotly contested this fall.

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House District: 5 | 10 | 21 | 48 | 50 | 51 | 69 | 81 | 83 | 91 | 97

Jeff Atwater [R]

Walter “Skip” Campbell [D]

Background: If incumbent Sen. Jeff Atwater (R) wins re-election, he’ll become the next Senate president. But first he’ll have to battle former state Sen. Walter “Skip” Campbell, a Fort Lauderdale Democrat who has lots of money, connections and experience. Campbell, who ran unsuccessfully for Florida Attorney General in 2006, says he plans to “take on the pay-to-play culture that corrupts our state politics and provide a voice for the people of Florida who feel too often neglected by their government.”

Democrats view the seat as a real opportunity, and Atwater is aggressively defending his seat, making this the most competitive state Senate seat. Expect to hear a lot about homeowners insurance issues in this coastal district, where Alex Sink, a Democrat, won 48% of the vote in 2006. Through the end of March, Atwater spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on television ads that highlight his fight against insurance companies that “used loopholes to skirt the law” and hiked rates, even after the state passed a bill intended to lower rates. But Florida Democratic Party Chairwoman Karen Thurman says Atwater is part of the problem. “He's risen to power on the shoulders of the insurance industry, but suddenly he's running for re-election as a champion of the people,” Thurman said in an e-mail that blames Atwater for co-sponsoring legislation in 2006 that raised insurance rates by 71.5% for the average homeowner. Other candidates who’ve filed to run include Robert Ostrov, a Democrat from Boynton Beach, and Stanley Smilan of Lake Worth, who has no party affiliation. Ostrov has raised just $6,401 this year, and Smilan reports a loan in the amount of $1,260. By latest count, Atwater and Campbell have raised $1.7 million and $179,685, respectively.

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