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Northeast Fla.: How Bad Is It?

How Bad Is It?Ports
Positive Vibes

“When you’re talking about today’s economic downturn as it affects port business, you’re talking imports. With consumer spending down, imports go down. JaxPort is not as vulnerable as some of the south Florida ports since today our business is fairly balanced between imports and exports.

Smart cars at Jaxport
Smart cars unloading at JaxPort [Photo: JaxPort]
Rick Ferrin
Rick Ferrin [Photo: Kelly LaDuke]
I have actually seen positive numbers in our vehicle business. Many of our import models are fuel efficient and quite popular right now. The number of vehicles we export through Jacksonville has jumped 49% over last year because of the weak dollar overseas and the resulting demand there for American automobiles and heavy equipment. With our new Asian container terminal about to open, JaxPort will handle more imports, but I am confident we’ll feel only slower-than-expected growth rather than a big negative hit. I am also optimistic that manufacturers and suppliers will figure out a way to maintain market share here in the U.S. while we all wait out the downturn.”

Rick Ferrin, executive director, Jacksonville Port Authority


Dan Boyd
Dan Boyd
Education
‘Breaking Point’

“In the more than 40 years I’ve been involved in public education, I’ve never seen an economic crisis like this one. For years, school funding has been absolutely dismal in Florida — and there are plenty of state and national reports to back that up. Somehow, we’ve always managed to make do.

Now I believe we’ve reached the breaking point, and I’m afraid the long-term consequences for our schools, our students and our state will be devastating. Our district has lost $14 million in state funding since this time last year, and we know more cuts are coming.We’ve cut elementary art and music programs in half, cut funding to career/tech and academic magnet programs, reduced elective offerings, drastically reduced transportation, closed a school and taken other painful steps to balance our budget.”

Dan Boyd, superintendent, Alachua County schools

School Enrollment Change
County % Change
(from 2007-08)
Student Change
Alachua -6.28% -1,789
Baker +1.93 +97
Bradford -6.51 -243
Clay -3.17 -1,184
Columbia -1.20 -123
Duval -3.25 -4,148
Gilchrist -4.44 -130
Hamilton -1.07 -21
Levy -4.17 -267
Marion -0.58 -248
Nassau -1.43 -158
Putnam -2.70 -323
St. Johns +4.47 +1,247
Suwannee +1.78 +104
Union +1.76 +41
Source: Florida Department of Education
Robert Sabo Jr.
Robert Sabo Jr. [Photo: Kelly LaDuke]

RestaurantsOut of Business

How Bad Is It? “My dad and mom started Sabo’s Pizza in 1982. We kept it going 26 years before I had to shut the doors. Business started declining in 2007. Even though we were popular, not as many people were going out to eat any more. Then the food costs went up tremendously. We got hit with increasing fuel costs on deliveries. Taxes up, insurance up, workman’s comp up — it was over $5 a plate before the food ever hit the plate. My propane costs alone went from $250 a week to $500 a week. ... We used every one of our available resources to stay open. I was waiting for the government to give me the bailout, but they didn’t seem to be coming my way. You hear those guys warning that businesses are going to fail? Hey, buddy, look around the country — businesses are already failing.”

Robert Sabo Jr., owner, Sabo’s Italian-American Restaurant, Keystone Heights (closed in September)


Retail‘Pretty Bad’

“We were doing well all year until about July, and then it’s like we fell off a cliff. It’s pretty bad now, especially on the boat side, where we’re off tremendously. Last August, we sold a half-million dollars worth of boats. This August, we sold one boat for $19,000.Purcells I was just at our local boat show at the convention center, where we might normally sell 20 to 25 boats. We sold one. ... Motorcycles were good all year until about 60 days ago. We would have made out if we’d had small ones, but all the motorcycle dealers were out of small models. We could have sold hundreds and thousands of them. Motorcycles will come back. We just ordered more for next year. Models that I would have ordered 100 of if I could get them, the dealers allocated me one or two. But the boat business will be a much harder row to hoe. You’ve got both the credit crunch and the fuel costs. I would bet 50% of the boat dealers in Jacksonville will go away this winter. If I was a boat-only dealer, I might have shut down already.”

Gary Purcell, owner, Purcell’s Motorcycle & Marine World, Jacksonville

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Charts on Gross Sales, Existing-Home Sales and Unemployment for the Northeast region

How Bad Is It?

Gross Sales (Jan.-June 08 vs. Jan.-June 07)
County % Change $ Change
Alachua +3.3% +$137,074,501
Baker +9.8 +77,004,598
Bradford -0.3 -826,962
Clay -5.3 -105,146,686
Columbia -9.8 -96,477,336
Duval +4.3 +953,205,537
Gilchrist -3.9 -3,124,471
Hamilton -4.2 -3,203,932
Levy -6.6 -28,576,582
Marion -11.5 -610,301,385
Nassau -7.2 -67,463,318
Putnam -6.2 -48,458,919
St. Johns -2.4 -58,675,052
Suwannee +27.3 +111,942,196
Union +125.9 +136,780,957
Source: Florida Department of Revenue

Existing-Home Sales
Metro Area August Sales 1-Year Chg. August Median $ 1-Year Chg.
Gainesville 176 -25% $177,500 -19%
Jacksonville 831 -18 184,900 -6
Ocala 207 -5 130,300 -16
Source: Florida Association of Realtors

Unemployment
Metro Area August 2007 August 2008 Number Unemployed
Gainesville (Alachua and Gilchrist) 3.3% 4.9% 6,737
Jacksonville (Baker, Clay, Duval, Nassau, St. Johns) 4.2 6.5 45,124
Ocala (Marion) 5.1 8.5 11,996
Source: Agency for Workforce Innovation