Even in a time of dramatic change, with uncertainty about the potential effects of President Trump’s new tariffs, Florida is poised for robust economic growth this year that will outpace the rest of the nation, the state’s Chamber of Commerce is predicting.
“If Florida was a stock, we’d be investing as much as we could,” chamber President Mark Wilson said Thursday at the organization’s annual economic outlook summit. “We create about one out of every 14 new jobs in the United States. … Businesses are moving from high-tax, high-crime states to Florida.”
Highlights from the Florida Chamber Foundation’s annual economic forecast:
• Economic growth: Florida’s gross domestic product is projected to grow by 2.5%-3.0% in 2025, surpassing national trends.
“That’s a little slower than last year, but still positive,” said Sheridan Morby, senior economist for the Florida Chamber Foundation. The Chamber says Florida’s growth trajectory is backed by a strong foundation in sectors like tech, health care, construction and manufacturing.
• Housing market: Home prices appear to be calming, with median sale prices for single-family homes ranging between $415,000 and $425,000 — although prices vary widely in different parts of the state. Housing affordability clearly remains a significant challenge for many Floridians.
• Population: The state’s population is expected to reach 23.75 million this year. The Chamber predicts that Florida’s population will grow by another 2.8 million people by 2030, adding to its current 23 million residents and requiring the creation of about 1.4 million new jobs. Because of the continuing population growth, the Chamber is advocating for strategic investments in infrastructure, transportation and health care. One concerning sign is that more people in the 20-29 age bracket are leaving Florida than moving to Florida, mostly due to housing affordability, the Chamber says.
• Income migration: The Chamber expects Florida will remain first in the country for net income migration. The state is gaining about $4 million per hour in net income migration — more than three times that of Texas, the second-highest state.
• Workforce: Job growth is expected to stabilize, growing by 1%-1.25%, with unemployment rates staying around 3.6%-3.8%. “We have more jobs open than people looking for work,” Wilson said. To raise Florida’s labor force participation rate, the Chamber is advocating for strategies to engage working-age adults who aren’t currently in the workforce.
With President Trump newly taking office, the Chamber factored that into its economic forecast. On Saturday, Trump imposed tariffs on imports from Canada, China and Mexico. Importers will pay a 25% tariff on products from Canada and Mexico and a 10% tariff on products from China, which could increase prices on products from those countries. The tariffs drew opposition from business and labor groups, who warned of upheaval in the economy, but they were welcomed by critics of U.S. trade policies.
Two economists who spoke at the Chamber’s annual economic outlook summit Thursday predicted that new tariffs would lead to higher inflation this year, but they also predicted that tax reform and a business-friendly regulatory environment under the new administration would be good for economic growth.
“By raising the cost of imports and of inputs into U.S. production and of consumer goods, tariffs represent a one-time boost to the price level. So that’s a near-term increase in inflation, and then as inflation increases, tariffs would also depress economic growth in the near term as well,” said Jackie Benson, a vice president and economist for Wells Fargo. “But then come 2026, we actually think that the U.S. economy is poised for an uptick in growth — so momentum driven by our expectations for tax cuts in the Republican-led Congress.”
Morby, the Florida Chamber Foundation’s senior economist, noted that 25% of Florida’s imports come from Canada, China and Mexico, so tariffs could lead to higher prices in the short term for businesses and consumers in the state. “It’s important to keep in mind that Florida is not going to be insulated from these impacts, specifically because of what our global trade looks like,” Morby said.
The Florida Chamber has a goal of making Florida one of 10 biggest economies in the world by 2030. It’s currently ranked 16th.